Oct 1, 2010
The cultural safety-valve: Emigration and Ireland
In the run up to the budget much attention has been give to the sharp rise in emigration rates – particularly amongst young people – after the Central Statistics Office announced that the number of people leaving Ireland had risen 81 per cent in four years. Outward migration is now at its highest level since the 1980s according to the CSO’s September report (see media coverage here, here and here) and Irish people account for approximately 42 percent of emigrants between 2006 and April 2010. In response to the figures, commentators have accused the government of using emigration as a safety-valve to ease the pressure the labour market is currently under, of falling back into the bad habits of previous recessions and of “sleepwalking over an economic cliff”. Recent estimates have indicated that Ireland has one of the highest emigration rates in the EU with a net outflow of nine per cent per 1000 inhabitants. Though this figure of course includes both recent immigrants (before now Ireland had one of the highest population inflows in the EU-27) it does given a good indication of the scale of current emigration.
However, scale is one thing, impact is another and when looking at migration trends it is important to take all factors into account. The main complaint in Ireland at the moment is that government approaches to the economic downturn have driven people away. Aside from the emotive element, this comment raises a very important question, particularly given forewarnings of further cuts in government spending – what is the relationship between the economic downturn and emigration?
What causes emigration?
There are a number of reasons why people leave their country of birth. Broadly speaking the rationale for emigration can be broken into two rough categories: compulsion (for example war or natural disasters) and choice (for example tourism, education). The economic reasons for leaving – unemployment, better pay, better working conditions – lie somewhere in between and there are other contextual factors such as historical narrative and culture. Though many people feel compelled to emigrate due to an absence of jobs, not everyone who is unemployed emigrates. While it has played a significant role in driving emigration it would be wrong to blame emigration solely on unemployment. Ireland has a well-known history of emigration (see Dr. Catríona Ní Laoire’s excellent working paper here), particularly amongst the young as epitomised by the spikes in emigration amongst the under-25s in the 1950s and 1980s. This historical and cultural narrative of young people leaving Ireland is hard to shake off and for many the decision to leave is made easier by the fact that members of their family already live abroad.
What happened during the recession?
At the expense of being glib – lots of things. Back to work schemes for the short- and long-term unemployed – which can be crucial for people trying to break into the labour market – have been on hold since 2009 with no indication of them being resumed in the near future. Social security support for the under-20s was cut and the labour market shrank significantly. Available training schemes for the unemployed are short-term with no promise that participation in these schemes will lead to employment. Additionally, for those people who can find part-time work (an important stepping-stone back into work), penalties were introduced which mean that their benefits will be cut regardless of the fact that the pay they receive for part-time work may be insufficient. This can act as a significant deterrent as it means that returning to work through low-paying, part-time work may cost more than remaining unemployed.
Not only this but low-pay employment opportunities have decreased substantially in the public sector and increasingly those who are employed by the public sector are hired under fixed, short-term contracts. For a new graduate looking for a secure position, entering into a fluid, unstable job market is not the most desirable. Additionally the minimal financial support for young people who find themselves unemployed may also influence the decision to leave Ireland. Combine this with the ‘emigration-culture’ and leaving Ireland seems a much better option.
How could the government stop people leaving?
Given the multitude of reasons for emigration it would be unrealistic to expect that one government policy could stall emigration. However, there are measures that could provide a viable, desirable alternative to emigrating. Comprehensive investment in schemes supporting people back to work and broadening the skills base of the public sector (i.e. more jobs at the bottom and lower-middle than the top) would make the movement into work a lot easier. Additionally the penalities imposed on unemployed persons who get part-time low-paying jobs should be lifted. As rural areas are particularly susceptible to depopulation, decentralised services need to be sustained.
In the run up to the budget, the probability of supporting services whose outcomes are not definite – people may still leave regardless of investment in back-to-work schemes – seems unlikely. On the other hand, serious consideration needs to be given to stalling emigration and ensuring that leaving Ireland does not become a default position.
